Innovation and the Base Rate

Innovation and the Base Rate

The base rate is the underlying probability unconditioned by prior events, and failing to consider it can lead to wrong conclusions. For example, while most people think driving away from home is safer because three out of four car accidents happen within 25 miles of home, the base rate tells us that people spend 90% of their time driving within 25 miles of home, making it safer. Likewise, when considering iPhone accidents, the base rate can help identify opportunities for innovation. In this case, understanding the base rate can help identify features, design aspects, and user habits that make iPhones safer in certain areas.

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More Innovation Resources:

Starting at Sprint Zero: A Better Way to Innovate

Agile and innovation management are crucial for corporate survival, with many companies dying due to failed IT projects and slow adaptation to changing markets. Agile Innovation is the perfect solution to tackle these problems.

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What Are Hackathons, And How Do They Work?

Hackathons are workshops where groups come together to solve problems or create innovations, often in a competitive format. They are a great way to generate ideas quickly and foster collaboration and research skills.

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Innovate on Purpose: 3M's Innovation Challenges

This article discusses potential areas of improvement for 3M's innovation capabilities, including the need to avoid complacency, embrace open innovation, focus on more than just product and technology, engage the whole organization, and become more customer-driven.

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