Why Trends are for Suckers

Even though trends are compelling, there are ways to identify that they may falter. The S curve shows how a new product is diffused, starting with only early adopters, to a critical mass and finally to (near) 100% adoption before it flattens out. However, it's hard to know when the trend will falter as it usually depends on other factors. The Hype Cycle shows how events start with a real surge of excitement, then become hyped and lead to disappointment before being reborn in a more realistic way. The flattening curve emphasizes that trends are often not trends at all, but an increase in diversity. Lastly, by looking for problems to solve and being value-focused, it's possible to avoid the trap of trends.